Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.47 – 75.94

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481 ±15.3

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 191.88Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX 9.88Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 86.71Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574 ±12.9

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 21.74Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 64.26Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX -10.06Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 9622, 4145

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 9622, 4145

Auto

62.4 22%

Teleop

158.0 55%

Endgame

69.3 24%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10207, 2252, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10207, 2252, 5811

Auto

28.3 37%

Teleop

29.4 38%

Endgame

19.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score288.5pts

Blue projected score75.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.5
Score range: 50–314
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 145.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481Season APEX574

62.4Auto28.3

158Teleop29.4

69.3Endgame19.8

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	38
teleop	94	104
endgame	58	63
foul	50	5
total	281	210

Result

Final score

281 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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