Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.69 – 132.24

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.3 ±12.2

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 42.65Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 113.09Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 134.95Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±17.1

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 22.16Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 42.39Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 67.69Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2172, 2399, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2172, 2399, 1507

Auto

43.6 16%

Teleop

181.4 67%

Endgame

45.2 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8713, 5413, 4121

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8713, 5413, 4121

Auto

28.1 22%

Teleop

63.9 50%

Endgame

35.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score290.7pts

Blue projected score132.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.5
Score range: 102–321
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.3Season APEX255.3

43.6Auto28.1

181.4Teleop63.9

45.2Endgame35.1

9Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	26
teleop	213	53
endgame	17	42
foul	5	0
total	280	121

Result

Final score

280 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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