Qualification · Qualification 29
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
221.81 – 198.31
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
456 – 161
Prediction correct · off by 135.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.3 ±11.4
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX -13.33Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 215.08Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 20.06Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.2 ±12.8
Season APEX 88Event APEX 23.95Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 103Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 71.36Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8145, 27, 4121
82
/ 100 compatProjected
221.8 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 8145, 27, 4121
Auto
68.5 31%
Teleop
106.9 48%
Endgame
46.8 21%
Strengths
- · 27 anchors offense
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3193, 2399, 9767
85
/ 100 compatProjected
198.3 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 3193, 2399, 9767
Auto
41.7 21%
Teleop
103.5 51%
Endgame
56.9 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score221.8pts
Blue projected score198.3pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 23.5
- Score range
- 173–247
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
628.3Season APEX370.2
68.5Auto41.7
106.9Teleop103.5
46.8Endgame56.9
56Consistency115
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 112 | 57 |
| teleop | 238 | 65 |
| endgame | 101 | 29 |
| foul | 5 | 10 |
| total | 456 | 161 |
Result
Final score
456 – 161
Prediction correct · off by 135.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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