Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.32 – 71.75

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 97.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.5 ±14.9

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 42.06Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 52.03Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 63.23Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.7 ±14.6

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 1.81Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 40.49Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 29.45Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 6834, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 120, 6834, 8393

Auto

33.4 23%

Teleop

66.5 45%

Endgame

46.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 291, 2172

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10208, 291, 2172

Auto

19.4 30%

Teleop

42.9 65%

Endgame

3.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score71.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 47–182
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.5Season APEX259.7

33.4Auto19.4

66.5Teleop42.9

46.9Endgame3.4

23Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	38
teleop	58	128
endgame	4	30
foul	0	0
total	87	196

Result

Final score

87 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 97.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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