Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.58 – 35.84

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.2 ±19.2

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX -4.44Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6916Iron Thunder

Provisional

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 53Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 40.02Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.3 ±13.3

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -41.34Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 0.1Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 77.08Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8718, 6916, 8243

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8718, 6916, 8243

Auto

20.7 25%

Teleop

49.9 61%

Endgame

11.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6964, 4085, 9075

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 4085, 9075

Auto

18.9 78%

Teleop

-4.2 0%

Endgame

9.6 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score35.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: 10–115
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.2Season APEX313.3

20.7Auto18.9

49.9Teleop-4.2

11.6Endgame9.6

83Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	9
teleop	3	21
endgame	4	24
foul	0	0
total	25	54

Result

Final score

25 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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