Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.15 – 249.71

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±16.5

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 5.22Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 37.86Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 47.07Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.9 ±14.7

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 33.42Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 158.91Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3777Bean City Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 57.38Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 10011, 6936

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 10011, 6936

Auto

22.7 27%

Teleop

27.9 34%

Endgame

32.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2252, 4611, 3777

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2252, 4611, 3777

Auto

38.7 16%

Teleop

162.0 65%

Endgame

48.6 19%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score249.7pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.6
Score range: 64–276
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.5Season APEX564.9

22.7Auto38.7

27.9Teleop162

32.5Endgame48.6

113Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	23	173
endgame	0	113
foul	10	5
total	53	310

Result

Final score

53 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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