Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.28 – 265.58

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.5 ±15.2

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 37.11Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 26.97Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 93.2Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±14.3

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -11.34Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 182.91Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 94.01Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3201, 10207, 5413

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 10207, 5413

Auto

28.8 19%

Teleop

99.1 65%

Endgame

25.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8140, 695, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8140, 695, 2399

Auto

58.5 22%

Teleop

156.3 59%

Endgame

51.2 19%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score265.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.3
Score range: 132–291
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.5Season APEX531.8

28.8Auto58.5

99.1Teleop156.3

25.3Endgame51.2

53Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	68
teleop	19	182
endgame	15	77
foul	5	0
total	63	327

Result

Final score

63 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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