Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.87 – 98.38

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

67 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269 ±15.1

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 37.05Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

7885Panther Tech

Season APEX 68Event APEX 29.67Rank 16Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 14.15Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±17

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 41.9Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 26.19Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX 30.29Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2172, 7885, 3193

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2172, 7885, 3193

Auto

30.0 36%

Teleop

54.0 66%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9194, 2603, 9622

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9194, 2603, 9622

Auto

6.9 7%

Teleop

68.6 72%

Endgame

19.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.9pts

Blue projected score98.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.5
Score range: 55–124
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269Season APEX266.6

30Auto6.9

54Teleop68.6

-1.7Endgame19.6

102Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	15
teleop	36	40
endgame	26	12
foul	0	0
total	67	67

Result

Final score

67 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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