Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.24 – 136.15

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.2 ±18.5

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 31.78Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX -14.62Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 43.08Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.7 ±12.2

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 15.58Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 61.64Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 58.93Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 291, 9643, 7165

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 291, 9643, 7165

Auto

7.0 11%

Teleop

29.0 46%

Endgame

26.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 9767, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 9767, 8393

Auto

40.4 30%

Teleop

41.1 31%

Endgame

51.1 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.2pts

Blue projected score136.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.9
Score range: 34–162
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.2Season APEX423.7

7Auto40.4

29Teleop41.1

26.7Endgame51.1

135Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	48
teleop	46	55
endgame	19	49
foul	0	0
total	85	152

Result

Final score

85 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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