Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.32 – 192.25

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.9 ±14.5

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 200.54Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 28.45Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 7.33Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.8 ±13.9

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 119.97Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 41.16Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 31.12Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 6936, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 27, 6936, 5811

Auto

58.3 25%

Teleop

138.5 59%

Endgame

38.2 16%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 120, 8243

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 120, 8243

Auto

43.8 23%

Teleop

101.7 53%

Endgame

47.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score236.3pts

Blue projected score192.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 167–261
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.9Season APEX386.8

58.3Auto43.8

138.5Teleop101.7

38.2Endgame47.1

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	23
teleop	151	118
endgame	58	50
foul	5	20
total	308	211

Result

Final score

308 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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