Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 322.95

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±16

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX -11.54Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3777Bean City Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 34.56Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -39.46Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.2 ±13

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 64.25Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 57.03Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 201.67Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 3777, 6964

/ 100 compat

Projected

-16.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 3777, 6964

Auto

15.5 0%

Teleop

-41.7 100%

Endgame

2.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9194, 2172, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

323 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9194, 2172, 695

Auto

44.0 14%

Teleop

226.7 70%

Endgame

51.1 16%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-16.4pts

Blue projected score323pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -322.9
Score range: -25–348
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.8Season APEX497.2

15.5Auto44

-41.7Teleop226.7

2.4Endgame51.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	60
teleop	12	142
endgame	17	36
foul	5	0
total	44	238

Result

Final score

44 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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