Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.88 – 105.21

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.5 ±13.9

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 45Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 21.65Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 28.23Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±15.2

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 26.42Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 59.86Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 18.93Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1014, 8243, 1308

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1014, 8243, 1308

Auto

14.9 16%

Teleop

53.4 58%

Endgame

24.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9194, 3201, 7165

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9194, 3201, 7165

Auto

18.4 19%

Teleop

56.7 58%

Endgame

22.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 65–135
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.5Season APEX259.6

14.9Auto18.4

53.4Teleop56.7

24.4Endgame22.5

15Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	4
teleop	18	87
endgame	8	42
foul	0	5
total	40	138

Result

Final score

40 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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