Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.91 – 43.6

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±16.7

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 111.35Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 49.98Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6916Iron Thunder

Provisional

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 68.58Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±15.6

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 31.96Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 22.55Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX -10.91Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5413, 2252, 6916

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5413, 2252, 6916

Auto

34.3 15%

Teleop

145.6 64%

Endgame

47.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8393, 3193, 9643

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8393, 3193, 9643

Auto

8.4 21%

Teleop

21.9 54%

Endgame

10.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.9pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.3
Score range: 18–256
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.4Season APEX365.5

34.3Auto8.4

145.6Teleop21.9

47.5Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	93	24
endgame	26	28
foul	0	0
total	143	70

Result

Final score

143 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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