Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
103.36 – 40.79
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
119 – 122
Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±13.3
Season APEX 67.4Event APEX -0.04Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 84.42Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 18.98Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.3 ±15.1
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 9.69Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 19.85Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 11.25Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10208, 4145, 2603
58
/ 100 compatProjected
103.4 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 10208, 4145, 2603
Auto
18.2 20%
Teleop
45.0 49%
Endgame
28.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1308, 10011, 291
34
/ 100 compatProjected
40.8 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 1308, 10011, 291
Auto
18.1 43%
Teleop
13.2 31%
Endgame
10.7 25%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.13
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score103.4pts
Blue projected score40.8pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 62.6
- Score range
- 15–129
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
373.6Season APEX295.3
18.2Auto18.1
45Teleop13.2
28.9Endgame10.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 24 |
| teleop | 62 | 71 |
| endgame | 31 | 27 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 119 | 122 |
Result
Final score
119 – 122
Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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