Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.25 – 175.53

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224 ±17.1

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 23.6Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7885Panther Tech

Season APEX 68Event APEX 21.63Rank 16Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX 18.02Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.1 ±11.6

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 11.19Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 14.53Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 149.81Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3201, 7885, 8140

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 7885, 8140

Auto

13.2 23%

Teleop

31.0 54%

Endgame

13.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 5811, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 5811, 4611

Auto

36.6 20%

Teleop

94.9 53%

Endgame

47.6 27%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score175.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.3
Score range: 38–201
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224Season APEX546.1

13.2Auto36.6

31Teleop94.9

13.4Endgame47.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	48
teleop	24	108
endgame	0	32
foul	5	5
total	46	193

Result

Final score

46 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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