Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.33 – 145.17

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±18.6

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 63.39Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 28.92Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 35.02Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±13.3

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 3.78Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 106.69Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 34.7Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6834, 8718, 10207

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6834, 8718, 10207

Auto

42.7 34%

Teleop

36.4 29%

Endgame

44.8 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8145, 1507, 9767

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8145, 1507, 9767

Auto

25.8 18%

Teleop

91.1 63%

Endgame

27.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.3pts

Blue projected score145.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.8
Score range: 101–171
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289Season APEX331.6

42.7Auto25.8

36.4Teleop91.1

44.8Endgame27.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	34
teleop	21	113
endgame	12	39
foul	5	5
total	58	191

Result

Final score

58 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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