Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.47 – 103.94

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±18

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX -5.77Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 26.07Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 101.17Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±16

6916Iron Thunder

Provisional

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 47.62Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 47.41Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 8.91Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9643, 6936, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9643, 6936, 2399

Auto

27.0 22%

Teleop

84.2 69%

Endgame

10.3 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6916, 2172, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6916, 2172, 1014

Auto

20.0 20%

Teleop

80.4 80%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score103.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 78–147
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.2Season APEX346.4

27Auto20

84.2Teleop80.4

10.3Endgame-0.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	70	92
endgame	31	6
foul	5	5
total	117	116

Result

Final score

117 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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