Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.09 – 26.35

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±15.7

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX -2.2Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 45.3Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 25.99Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.8 ±16

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 8.66Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX 15.98Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 1.71Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 291, 9194

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 291, 9194

Auto

29.3 45%

Teleop

24.4 38%

Endgame

11.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 8140, 10011

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 8140, 10011

Auto

8.0 36%

Teleop

-0.1 0%

Endgame

14.2 64%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score26.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 1–94
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.4Season APEX329.8

29.3Auto8

24.4Teleop-0.1

11.2Endgame14.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	23
teleop	71	20
endgame	5	15
foul	5	0
total	115	58

Result

Final score

115 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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