Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.78 – 46.95

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 23.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.1 ±15.6

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 59.92Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 5.43Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX 7.43Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±16

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 21.24Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 1.14Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 24.57Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8393, 8145, 9622

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8393, 8145, 9622

Auto

16.8 24%

Teleop

42.9 61%

Endgame

11.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9075, 1014, 8718

/ 100 compat

Projected

47 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9075, 1014, 8718

Auto

13.0 31%

Teleop

9.3 22%

Endgame

19.8 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.8pts

Blue projected score47pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.8
Score range: 20–100
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.1Season APEX431.8

16.8Auto13

42.9Teleop9.3

11.1Endgame19.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	14
teleop	31	39
endgame	8	19
foul	5	10
total	61	82

Result

Final score

61 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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