Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.09 – 68.73

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±16.5

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 30.09Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 32.62Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 28.38Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.3 ±14.5

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 23.57Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 32.96Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 12.2Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9767, 8718, 120

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9767, 8718, 120

Auto

32.2 42%

Teleop

29.6 39%

Endgame

14.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10207, 10011, 3193

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10207, 10011, 3193

Auto

24.5 35%

Teleop

27.8 39%

Endgame

18.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score68.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.4
Score range: 39–121
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 165.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.8Season APEX362.3

32.2Auto24.5

29.6Teleop27.8

14.8Endgame18.4

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	20
teleop	15	12
endgame	36	24
foul	0	0
total	86	56

Result

Final score

86 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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