Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

381 – 361.32

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

509 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.2 ±10

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX -13.3Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 258.78Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 135.52Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.3 ±11.1

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 134.52Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 216.9Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 9.9Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10208, 27, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

381 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10208, 27, 4611

Auto

86.5 21%

Teleop

232.5 56%

Endgame

97.2 23%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 695, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 695, 5811

Auto

67.3 20%

Teleop

188.9 57%

Endgame

74.6 23%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score381pts

Blue projected score361.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 332–410
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 162.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.2Season APEX633.3

86.5Auto67.3

232.5Teleop188.9

97.2Endgame74.6

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	73
teleop	241	165
endgame	108	116
foul	60	15
total	509	369

Result

Final score

509 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

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