Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

431.09 – 373.23

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 277.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.2 ±10

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 275.27Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 3.6Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 152.22Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.3 ±11.1

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 139.48Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 221.3Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 12.45Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 10208, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 27, 10208, 4611

Auto

88.9 21%

Teleop

244.3 57%

Endgame

92.7 22%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 695, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 695, 5811

Auto

65.7 19%

Teleop

202.5 59%

Endgame

75.7 22%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score431.1pts

Blue projected score373.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.9
Score range: 344–460
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 162.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.2Season APEX633.3

88.9Auto65.7

244.3Teleop202.5

92.7Endgame75.7

1Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	80
teleop	140	73
endgame	131	67
foul	20	30
total	0	250

Result

Final score

0 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 277.2 pts

Match videos

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