Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.51 – 378.15

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.2 ±10

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 279.68Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 8.14Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 156.69Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.3 ±11.1

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 141.38Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 223.08Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 13.69Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 10208, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 27, 10208, 4611

Auto

99.3 23%

Teleop

249.5 57%

Endgame

90.6 21%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 695, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 695, 5811

Auto

64.6 19%

Teleop

206.8 60%

Endgame

74.8 22%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score444.5pts

Blue projected score378.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.4
Score range: 349–474
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.2Season APEX633.3

99.3Auto64.6

249.5Teleop206.8

90.6Endgame74.8

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	71
teleop	209	170
endgame	107	83
foul	5	10
total	342	334

Result

Final score

342 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts

Match videos

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