Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.34 – 319.28

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

308 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±13.9

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 45.36Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 132.43Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 131.55Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.8 ±12.9

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 83.07Rank 14Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 89.48Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 146.73Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 20, 1405, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 20, 1405, 3173

Auto

43.3 14%

Teleop

192.0 63%

Endgame

68.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1126, 4121, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 4121, 3181

Auto

60.7 20%

Teleop

176.9 58%

Endgame

68.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score309.3pts

Blue projected score319.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.9
Score range: 270–358
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 697 vs event baseline 214.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX481.8

43.3Auto60.7

192Teleop176.9

68.1Endgame68.8

47Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	62
teleop	175	233
endgame	66	84
foul	5	10
total	308	389

Result

Final score

308 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Match videos

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