Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.23 – 441.96

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

465 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 92.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±11.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 104.54Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 97.17Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 89.52Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.8 ±11.7

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 40.37Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 172.79Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 228.8Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6436, 9545, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 9545, 10202

Auto

44.7 16%

Teleop

154.2 54%

Endgame

84.8 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8222, 287, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

442 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 287, 5736

Auto

91.8 22%

Teleop

236.5 56%

Endgame

95.8 23%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score291.2pts

Blue projected score442pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.7
Score range: 253–480
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 918 vs event baseline 211.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.4Season APEX621.8

44.7Auto91.8

154.2Teleop236.5

84.8Endgame95.8

34Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	98
teleop	269	292
endgame	122	63
foul	20	0
total	465	453

Result

Final score

465 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 92.4 pts

Match videos

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