Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

522.85 – 337.53

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 164.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.7 ±10.5

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 207.13Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 52.36Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 263.36Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±13.9

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 55.16Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 141.92Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 140.45Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 263, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

522.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 870, 263, 1796

Auto

113.7 22%

Teleop

300.6 58%

Endgame

107.5 21%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 20, 1405, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 20, 1405, 3173

Auto

43.9 13%

Teleop

206.7 63%

Endgame

78.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score522.9pts

Blue projected score337.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.3
Score range: 300–561
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 211.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.7Season APEX462.9

113.7Auto43.9

300.6Teleop206.7

107.5Endgame78.9

34Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	45
teleop	127	134
endgame	46	29
foul	5	0
total	323	208

Result

Final score

323 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 164.7 pts

Match videos

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