Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
329.91 – 333.49
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
345 – 253
Prediction missed · off by 47.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.1 ±11.6
Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 93.16Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 84.81Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 233Event APEX 151.94Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.2 ±17
Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 99.83Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 120.49Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94
1493Falcons
Provisional
Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 113.17Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3044, 4121, 3181
86
/ 100 compatProjected
329.9 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 3044, 4121, 3181
Auto
61.7 19%
Teleop
186.0 56%
Endgame
84.2 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 271, 1591, 1493
81
/ 100 compatProjected
333.5 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 271, 1591, 1493
Auto
57.0 18%
Teleop
183.7 56%
Endgame
84.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.79
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score329.9pts
Blue projected score333.5pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -3.6
- Score range
- 292–371
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
622.1Season APEX527.2
61.7Auto57
186Teleop183.7
84.2Endgame84.5
94Consistency11
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 72 | 74 |
| teleop | 184 | 159 |
| endgame | 24 | 0 |
| foul | 65 | 20 |
| total | 345 | 253 |
Result
Final score
345 – 253
Prediction missed · off by 47.8 pts
Match videos
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