Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

238.6 – 241.36

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.4 ±12.9

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 102.77Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 17.26Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 118.57Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528 ±11.7

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 67.01Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 122.28Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 52.07Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 191, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 424, 191, 2053

Auto

45.0 19%

Teleop

126.0 54%

Endgame

61.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1880, 4122, 6621

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1880, 4122, 6621

Auto

46.9 20%

Teleop

129.7 55%

Endgame

58.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score238.6pts

Blue projected score241.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.8
Score range: 201–279
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 210.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.4Season APEX528

45Auto46.9

126Teleop129.7

61.3Endgame58.9

54Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	64
teleop	134	34
endgame	80	7
foul	15	0
total	259	105

Result

Final score

259 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 pts

Match videos

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