Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.55 – 287.44

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 140 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.8 ±11.7

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 25.97Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 162.88Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 215.7Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.2 ±17

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 80.74Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 106.53Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 100.17Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 287, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 287, 5736

Auto

90.8 24%

Teleop

209.7 55%

Endgame

81.0 21%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 271, 1591, 1493

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 271, 1591, 1493

Auto

44.4 16%

Teleop

169.9 61%

Endgame

63.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score404.5pts

Blue projected score287.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.1
Score range: 250–442
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 972 vs event baseline 207.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.8Season APEX527.2

90.8Auto44.4

209.7Teleop169.9

81Endgame63

50Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	85
teleop	306	213
endgame	134	133
foul	5	5
total	536	436

Result

Final score

536 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 140 pts

Match videos

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