Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.28 – 245.22

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

324 – 412

Prediction missed · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.1 ±11.6

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 96.33Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 82.98Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 155.97Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±11.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 88.82Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 84.88Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 71.52Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3044, 4121, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3044, 4121, 3181

Auto

54.4 16%

Teleop

189.7 56%

Endgame

94.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6436, 9545, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 9545, 10202

Auto

41.4 18%

Teleop

131.6 56%

Endgame

61.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score335.3pts

Blue projected score245.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.1
Score range: 208–372
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 736 vs event baseline 205.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.1Season APEX551.4

54.4Auto41.4

189.7Teleop131.6

94.4Endgame61.6

95Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	60
teleop	181	213
endgame	65	134
foul	0	5
total	324	412

Result

Final score

324 – 412

Prediction missed · off by 89 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.