Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.69 – 293.58

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±13.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 143.48Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 147.59Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 62.62Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528 ±11.7

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 82.65Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 140.24Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 70.69Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3173, 1405, 20

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 1405, 20

Auto

41.3 12%

Teleop

215.8 62%

Endgame

89.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1880, 4122, 6621

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1880, 4122, 6621

Auto

47.4 16%

Teleop

170.9 58%

Endgame

74.1 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score353.7pts

Blue projected score293.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.1
Score range: 257–391
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 205.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX528

41.3Auto47.4

215.8Teleop170.9

89.8Endgame74.1

36Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	46
teleop	187	40
endgame	53	22
foul	15	15
total	307	123

Result

Final score

307 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 pts

Match videos

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