Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

579.78 – 200.28

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 164.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.7 ±10.5

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 227.87Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 74.41Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 277.5Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.4 ±12.9

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 85.4Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 5.72Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 109.16Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 263, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

579.8 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 870, 263, 1796

Auto

121.7 21%

Teleop

333.9 58%

Endgame

122.9 21%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 424, 191, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 424, 191, 2053

Auto

42.2 22%

Teleop

100.9 53%

Endgame

48.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score579.8pts

Blue projected score200.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 379.5
Score range: 163–617
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 203.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.7Season APEX536.4

121.7Auto42.2

333.9Teleop100.9

122.9Endgame48.3

32Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	55
teleop	211	181
endgame	61	92
foul	5	0
total	379	328

Result

Final score

379 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 164.3 pts

Match videos

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