Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.21 – 345.64

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±11.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 115.49Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 107.15Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 99.57Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.8 ±12.9

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 95.22Rank 14Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 96.48Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 153.94Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6436, 9545, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 9545, 10202

Auto

50.0 16%

Teleop

179.6 57%

Endgame

83.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1126, 4121, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 4121, 3181

Auto

59.8 18%

Teleop

188.1 58%

Endgame

77.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score322.2pts

Blue projected score345.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 282–386
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 780 vs event baseline 220.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.4Season APEX481.8

50Auto59.8

179.6Teleop188.1

83.7Endgame77.9

18Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	71
teleop	209	227
endgame	174	46
foul	0	0
total	436	344

Result

Final score

436 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 pts

Match videos

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