Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.04 – 336.36

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

381 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.8 ±11.7

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 35.7Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 170.85Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 222.49Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.8 ±12.9

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 90.83Rank 14Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 93.93Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 151.6Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 287, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

429 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8222, 287, 5736

Auto

95.6 23%

Teleop

230.4 56%

Endgame

85.4 21%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1126, 4121, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 4121, 3181

Auto

60.0 19%

Teleop

192.3 59%

Endgame

72.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score429pts

Blue projected score336.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.7
Score range: 297–468
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 218.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.8Season APEX481.8

95.6Auto60

230.4Teleop192.3

85.4Endgame72

10Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	59
teleop	238	172
endgame	37	100
foul	40	50
total	381	381

Result

Final score

381 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Match videos

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