Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

478.45 – 330.77

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.7 ±10.5

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 192.86Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 37.63Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 247.96Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±11.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 117.73Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 109.63Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 103.41Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 263, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

478.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 870, 263, 1796

Auto

120.7 25%

Teleop

262.0 55%

Endgame

93.8 20%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6436, 9545, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 9545, 10202

Auto

46.1 14%

Teleop

180.5 56%

Endgame

93.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score478.5pts

Blue projected score330.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.7
Score range: 292–517
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 217.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.7Season APEX551.4

120.7Auto46.1

262Teleop180.5

93.8Endgame93.8

47Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	65
teleop	233	175
endgame	53	37
foul	15	5
total	378	282

Result

Final score

378 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 pts

Match videos

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