Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.08 – 183.31

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

502 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.3 ±12.4

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 145.92Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX -4.24Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 204.4Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490 ±12.9

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 77.7Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 62.37Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 43.24Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 287, 7759, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 287, 7759, 5736

Auto

82.4 26%

Teleop

195.8 61%

Endgame

43.4 13%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9545, 263, 1559

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9545, 263, 1559

Auto

35.7 20%

Teleop

93.8 53%

Endgame

47.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score346.1pts

Blue projected score183.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.8
Score range: 147–382
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 201.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.3Season APEX490

82.4Auto35.7

195.8Teleop93.8

43.4Endgame47.3

62Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	66
teleop	256	139
endgame	92	65
foul	30	5
total	502	275

Result

Final score

502 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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