Qualification · Qualification 8
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
82.61 – 82.61
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
186 – 320
Prediction missed · off by 170.4 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 516 ±12.8
Season APEX 96.1Event APEX -Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX -Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 137.7Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.8 ±17.1
Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 85
Season APEX 220.8Event APEX -Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1493Falcons
Provisional
Season APEX 172.8Event APEX -Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 806, 5736, 10202
50
/ 100 compatProjected
82.6 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 806, 5736, 10202
Auto
24.8 30%
Teleop
41.3 50%
Endgame
16.5 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10582, 424, 1493
50
/ 100 compatProjected
82.6 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 10582, 424, 1493
Auto
24.8 30%
Teleop
41.3 50%
Endgame
16.5 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.76
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score82.6pts
Blue projected score82.6pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 70%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 0
- Score range
- 53–113
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
516Season APEX522.8
-Auto-
-Teleop-
-Endgame-
-Consistency-
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 59 | 67 |
| teleop | 96 | 196 |
| endgame | 11 | 57 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 186 | 320 |
Result
Final score
186 – 320
Prediction missed · off by 170.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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