Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.52 – 173.21

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.2 ±17

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -4.3Rank 59Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 124.17Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 114.65Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±13.5

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 89.38Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 27.85Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 55.98Rank 18Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7903, 1591, 1493

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7903, 1591, 1493

Auto

62.4 26%

Teleop

124.6 52%

Endgame

53.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6436, 8222, 7504

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6436, 8222, 7504

Auto

16.6 10%

Teleop

95.6 56%

Endgame

59.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score234.5pts

Blue projected score173.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.3
Score range: 137–271
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 201.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.2Season APEX446.8

62.4Auto16.6

124.6Teleop95.6

53.9Endgame59.1

53Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	23
teleop	62	77
endgame	41	64
foul	0	15
total	143	179

Result

Final score

143 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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