Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.47 – 277.1

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±18.2

10714RAMpage.AI

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 21.82Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 20.12Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 10.53Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.4 ±14.5

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 73.75Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 147.52Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 55.83Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10714, 4930, 7718

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10714, 4930, 7718

Auto

14.2 25%

Teleop

29.0 51%

Endgame

13.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10202, 1405, 20

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10202, 1405, 20

Auto

26.8 10%

Teleop

164.8 61%

Endgame

76.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.5pts

Blue projected score277.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -224.6
Score range: 16–313
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 202.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.5Season APEX446.4

14.2Auto26.8

29Teleop164.8

13.2Endgame76.9

44Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	57
teleop	23	156
endgame	10	62
foul	5	0
total	49	275

Result

Final score

49 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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