Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.5 – 271.64

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±13.3

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 83Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX -13.96Rank 45Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 104.46Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±16.9

5149TroyBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 36.31Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 225.63Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 9.7Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4121, 806, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 806, 10413

Auto

37.2 22%

Teleop

95.8 57%

Endgame

33.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5149, 870, 191

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5149, 870, 191

Auto

73.5 27%

Teleop

155.3 57%

Endgame

43.7 16%

Strengths

· 870 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173.5pts

Blue projected score271.6pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.1
Score range: 138–308
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.9Season APEX526.4

37.2Auto73.5

95.8Teleop155.3

33.9Endgame43.7

26Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	90
teleop	88	144
endgame	58	44
foul	0	0
total	168	278

Result

Final score

168 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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