Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.3 – 161.63

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 94.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±15

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 84.8Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 72.93Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 52.57Rank 36Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.2 ±15.6

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 76.49Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 63.28Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 21.86Rank 40Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6621, 4601, 5016

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6621, 4601, 5016

Auto

30.1 14%

Teleop

144.3 69%

Endgame

35.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 271, 3003, 6806

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 271, 3003, 6806

Auto

11.6 8%

Teleop

74.3 54%

Endgame

50.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.3pts

Blue projected score161.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.7
Score range: 126–246
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 202.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.7Season APEX367.2

30.1Auto11.6

144.3Teleop74.3

35.4Endgame50.6

35Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	20	130
endgame	45	62
foul	0	0
total	87	227

Result

Final score

87 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 94.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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