Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.15 – 354.34

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.5 ±16.9

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 162.58Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 17.66Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7031Duanesburg Jr./Sr. High School

Provisional

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 30.91Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.4 ±13.4

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 162.49Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 83.03Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 108.82Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 5590, 7031

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 5590, 7031

Auto

45.2 21%

Teleop

111.2 53%

Endgame

54.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 2791, 3044

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 2791, 3044

Auto

61.3 17%

Teleop

225.1 63%

Endgame

70.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211.2pts

Blue projected score354.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.2
Score range: 175–390
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.5Season APEX565.4

45.2Auto61.3

111.2Teleop225.1

54.6Endgame70

40Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	46
teleop	108	142
endgame	52	42
foul	0	15
total	208	245

Result

Final score

208 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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