Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.88 – 113.41

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.3 ±14.7

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 43.43Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX 78.81Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 85

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 107.64Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.6 ±12.9

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 11.44Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 126.2Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX -24.23Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 677, 10582, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 677, 10582, 2053

Auto

41.5 18%

Teleop

139.3 62%

Endgame

45.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10604, 4122, 6463

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10604, 4122, 6463

Auto

30.0 26%

Teleop

55.4 48%

Endgame

29.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.9pts

Blue projected score113.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.5
Score range: 77–266
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 201.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.3Season APEX422.6

41.5Auto30

139.3Teleop55.4

45.6Endgame29.9

44Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	42
teleop	70	99
endgame	49	68
foul	105	0
total	246	209

Result

Final score

246 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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