Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.69 – 136.85

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593 ±12.4

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 2.45Rank 13Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 64.58Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 200.66Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298 ±17.2

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 75.99Rank 25Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 30.56Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10714RAMpage.AI

Provisional

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 30.3Rank 55Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 191, 9545, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 191, 9545, 5736

Auto

76.5 30%

Teleop

115.8 46%

Endgame

60.6 24%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10202, 8222, 10714

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10202, 8222, 10714

Auto

24.9 18%

Teleop

72.3 52%

Endgame

41.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score267.7pts

Blue projected score136.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.8
Score range: 101–304
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 201.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593Season APEX298

76.5Auto24.9

115.8Teleop72.3

60.6Endgame41.6

82Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	6
teleop	171	65
endgame	71	27
foul	20	0
total	336	98

Result

Final score

336 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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