Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.96 – 159.02

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494 ±13.5

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 63.16Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 236.8Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 35Rank 35Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.5 ±15.9

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 78.49Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5149TroyBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 28.48Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 52.05Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1559, 870, 6648

/ 100 compat

Projected

335 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1559, 870, 6648

Auto

77.2 24%

Teleop

167.6 53%

Endgame

73.6 23%

Strengths

· 870 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1880, 5149, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1880, 5149, 424

Auto

46.5 29%

Teleop

99.1 61%

Endgame

17.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score335pts

Blue projected score159pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.9
Score range: 123–371
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 202.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494Season APEX510.5

77.2Auto46.5

167.6Teleop99.1

73.6Endgame17.2

79Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	19
teleop	105	139
endgame	15	47
foul	5	0
total	231	205

Result

Final score

231 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 75 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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