Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.19 – 339.94

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±19.8

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 130.75Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

229Division By Zero

Provisional

Season APEX 74Event APEX -15.92Rank 54Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 85.36Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589 ±12.4

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 37.82Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 132.88Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 169.24Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1493, 229, 3003

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1493, 229, 3003

Auto

37.9 19%

Teleop

125.4 62%

Endgame

39.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 677, 4122, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 677, 4122, 3181

Auto

59.9 18%

Teleop

184.3 55%

Endgame

93.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score339.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.7
Score range: 163–377
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 202.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.9Season APEX589

37.9Auto59.9

125.4Teleop184.3

39.5Endgame93.9

71Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	91
teleop	41	184
endgame	46	32
foul	0	0
total	123	307

Result

Final score

123 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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