Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.18 – 225.76

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.2 ±15

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX -31.38Rank 51Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 94.37Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 36.19Rank 56Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±17.3

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 167.24Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 33.55Rank 44Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7031Duanesburg Jr./Sr. High School

Provisional

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 24.97Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6463, 10413, 6300

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6463, 10413, 6300

Auto

23.7 24%

Teleop

47.5 48%

Endgame

27.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 5881, 7031

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 5881, 7031

Auto

34.2 16%

Teleop

136.5 63%

Endgame

45.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score225.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.6
Score range: 62–263
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 203.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.2Season APEX377.7

23.7Auto34.2

47.5Teleop136.5

27.6Endgame45.6

68Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	51
teleop	73	122
endgame	39	40
foul	5	5
total	138	218

Result

Final score

138 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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