Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.37 – 220.49

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.6 ±12.2

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 20.67Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 130.62Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 111.08Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.1 ±13.4

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 52.54Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 59.91Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 108.04Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10604, 2053, 6621

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10604, 2053, 6621

Auto

33.2 12%

Teleop

171.0 64%

Endgame

64.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 20, 263, 3044

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 20, 263, 3044

Auto

35.9 16%

Teleop

108.9 50%

Endgame

74.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score262.4pts

Blue projected score220.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.9
Score range: 183–299
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 203.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.6Season APEX555.1

33.2Auto35.9

171Teleop108.9

64Endgame74.8

88Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	34
teleop	63	140
endgame	14	50
foul	5	0
total	122	224

Result

Final score

122 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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