Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.57 – 132.73

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.9 ±13.9

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 37.52Rank 35Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 31.55Rank 33Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 48.5Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±15

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 16.98Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 85.02Rank 14Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 30.73Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6648, 4930, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 4930, 424

Auto

36.2 31%

Teleop

55.3 47%

Endgame

25.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7718, 1126, 8222

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7718, 1126, 8222

Auto

5.5 5%

Teleop

85.1 70%

Endgame

31.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.6pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 81–170
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 205.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.9Season APEX304.8

36.2Auto5.5

55.3Teleop85.1

25Endgame31.5

37Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	21
teleop	39	52
endgame	7	55
foul	15	5
total	136	133

Result

Final score

136 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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