Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.41 – 57.68

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 84 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.5 ±17.5

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 97.66Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1493Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 172.8Event APEX 118.58Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 24.17Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276 ±13.4

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 16.41Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 64.13Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -22.86Rank 58Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2340, 1493, 677

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.4 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2340, 1493, 677

Auto

56.5 23%

Teleop

118.6 49%

Endgame

69.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11010, 4121, 533

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11010, 4121, 533

Auto

19.7 36%

Teleop

16.8 31%

Endgame

17.8 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.4pts

Blue projected score57.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.7
Score range: 21–277
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 207.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.5Season APEX276

56.5Auto19.7

118.6Teleop16.8

69Endgame17.8

120Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	25
teleop	183	64
endgame	55	60
foul	0	10
total	307	159

Result

Final score

307 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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